Predicting the Impact of Climate Warming on Growth of Masson Pine Using Provenance Regional Trials

Global climate change is an undoubtedly fact. It is very important to evaluate and predict impact of climate warming on tree growth. This study is attempted to determine the impact of global warming on growth of forest tree using data from provenance tests of masson pine (Pinus massoniana) as an example. It was found that Schmidtling’s regression model predicts a loss of about 8% in height growth if the average yearly temperature increases by 2℃. The author believes that Schmidtling’s regression method couldn’t be used to precisely evaluate the effect of climate warming because of its inherently shortcoming. Based on Matyas’s growth response model and author’s research foundation,therefore,the author tries to model response functions of various provenances at average yearly temperature gradient,calculate height changes at different geographic areas after climate warming and establish response model of height change with average yearly temperatures or latitudes of seed sources. The results indicated that impacts of climate warming on masson pine height growth at different geographic zones could be predicted with response model of height change. An increase in average yearly temperature by 2℃ will result in accelerated growth at the northern part of masson pine distribution area if precipitation is sufficient,and at the southern of distribution area,the growth will decline.