Height and Diameter Growth Modeling of Dahurian Larch Based on Nonlinear Mixed Model in Northeastern China

JIANG Li-chun; DU Shu-li

With the stem analysis data based on 80 sample trees from dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations located in Daqingchuan Forestry Center of Dailing Forest Bureau in Heilongjiang Province, the Richards growth model was selected to model the height/age and diameter/age relationships of dahurian larch using NLME procedure of S-PLUS. Evaluation statistics, such as AIC, BIC, Log Likelihood and likelihood ratio test were used for precision analyzing and comparing of different models. The results indicated that Richards model with parameters b1 and b3 as mixed effects showed the best performance for both height-age relationships and diameter-age relationships. Correlation structures including first-order autoregressive correlation structure AR(1), moving average correlation structure MA(1) and autoregressive-moving average correlation structure were incorporated into the optimal height and diameter mixed models. AR(1) significantly improved the precision of mixed height model and MA(1) significantly improved the precision of mixed diameter model. Model validation showed that the mixed model with calibration of random parameters could improve the precision of prediction. Therefore, the application of the mixed model showed not only the mean trends of height and diameter prediction, but also the individual difference by calibrating random parameters using variance-covariance structure and correlation structure.

1. College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, China

Received Date: 2011-03-20

Available Online: 2012-02-16

Abstract: With the stem analysis data based on 80 sample trees from dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations located in Daqingchuan Forestry Center of Dailing Forest Bureau in Heilongjiang Province, the Richards growth model was selected to model the height/age and diameter/age relationships of dahurian larch using NLME procedure of S-PLUS. Evaluation statistics, such as AIC, BIC, Log Likelihood and likelihood ratio test were used for precision analyzing and comparing of different models. The results indicated that Richards model with parameters b1 and b3 as mixed effects showed the best performance for both height-age relationships and diameter-age relationships. Correlation structures including first-order autoregressive correlation structure AR(1), moving average correlation structure MA(1) and autoregressive-moving average correlation structure were incorporated into the optimal height and diameter mixed models. AR(1) significantly improved the precision of mixed height model and MA(1) significantly improved the precision of mixed diameter model. Model validation showed that the mixed model with calibration of random parameters could improve the precision of prediction. Therefore, the application of the mixed model showed not only the mean trends of height and diameter prediction, but also the individual difference by calibrating random parameters using variance-covariance structure and correlation structure.

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Reference (16)

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Height and Diameter Growth Modeling of Dahurian Larch Based on Nonlinear Mixed Model in Northeastern China

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